Investment Portfolios Based on Macroeconomic and Securities Research
Most Recent (Everything listed from most to least recent):
Please note that you can flip through the chartbook without sound and at your own speed. However, we recommend that you listen to our commentary to get the full grasp of our message.
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July 2012
Fear is in the air, but improvements are on the way.
2011 Macro Research
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April 2011
The Recovery is in Process. Time for the stimulus to end while the economy stabilizes.
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January 2011
Painting over Rotten Wood. Short-term fixing our nation's fast-growing debt.
Archived, Special Topics
2010 Macro Research
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September
The Challenges of Being an Optimistic Contrarian
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JuneFor all the talk of a slowdown, this looks like growth!
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MarchFundamental Problems with Life Expectancy and Funding Levels for Social Programs within the U.S.
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DecemberCautiously Positive Outlook in a Post-Crisis Economy
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SeptemberThe new normal: slower, more durable growth while the rest of the world is catching up.
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JuneWhat happened, where are we now, and what do we expect through this recession?
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April
20 Reasons We Believe the World is Not Ending: Improvements in the Economy even though the Stock Market has Just Begun to Turn Around
2008 Macro Research
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October
What caused this recession, the housing bubble burst, bank bailouts, and what the future holds.
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July Sub-prime is just a normal capitalistic credit cycle.
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June
Presentation to Mobile West Rotary Club: Dilutive Effect of Recapitalization on the Banking System and Concerns of Inflation
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May Explanation of the Coming Economic Crisis/ Recession before it explodes.
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April Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst.
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March
Predictions of What Lies Ahead
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January
"EIEIO”... Earnings, Inflation, Employment, Interest Rates and Oil: What happened in 2007 and Forecasts for 2008.
2007 Macro Research
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November The stock market and/or the housing market (rising asset prices) cannot be counted on to do our saving for us.
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October
Lipstick on a Pig: Unless we tip over into an outright recession because of housing the Fed may soon regret their 50bps cut.
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SeptemberThe current state of consumerism is not sustainable.
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August
So much for global liquidity. Risk is underpriced.
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July Where is the margin of safety?
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JuneThe Cost of Cheap Money
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April A Review of Our Past Chartbooks: We are Perma-skeptics.
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March
Coming Soon: Tightening Money Supply, Higher Inflation, and Slower Economic Growth
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FebruaryStatus Quo, with Inflationary Pressure Remaining
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January
The US Economy & the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been Photoshopped.
2006 Macro Research
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November
Betting on the fat man to win the footrace?
Current conditions vs. the stock market bulls.
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October
Gold, Interest Rates, and the USD:
How the Fed is getting its Mojo Back.
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September
The impact of Katrina: one year later (Our thoughts on the future of oil prices).
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August
Why We Think There May be Wage Inflation
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July Who’s afraid of the US dollar?
We are... and here’s why.
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MayOnce we feared deflation. What we have is deep and persistent inflation that is biting purchase power.
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February
The Fed wanted to reflate the economy and, boy, they got it. You name it, and it is up in price (ha! not value) in the last five years: homes, classic cars, gold, condos, land, oil... Everything except perhaps large cap growth companies, or the good ole US Dollar.
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January
We are All Betting on the Bernanke Balancing Act!
2005 Macro Research
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December
We have been in a cycle of consumption driven by equity extraction that cannot continue at the same pace over the coming five years.
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NovemberThe Fed might soon be done, but inflation is still a risk.
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October
The markets should reflect some of the uncertainty in underpriced risk.
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September
Corporate earnings continue to rise, and that should provide an anchor to limit downside during this period.
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JulySome of the tightening is likely in response to outlandish financing schemes associated with real estate transactions in isolated markets within the US.
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May
Any market that is rising double digits with a twinge of speculation is a bubble according to the press.
Read: Real Estate.
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April
Energy, Earnings & Inflation:
Three words that scare the bulls and cheer the bears.
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March
Steady as she goes, or caught in a trap?
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February
The question that everyone putting capital to work in risky assets has been asking is, “What is this market going to do?”
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January
Slowing Rate of Money Supply
2004 Macro Research
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NovemberThe early election results alleviated the market’s uncertainty at the beginning of November, providing a boost for equities. At the same time, the price of oil has declined, and there was a strong employment report for October.
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OctoberPoints of Friction in the Election Campaign
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AugustPolitics aside, the Presidential race is neck and neck and will likely come down to the wire. The markets are watching the race, and the campaigns are watching the markets looking for strength or weakness to exploit.
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July
We have transitioned to a sustainable rate of growth consistent with low inflation, job growth, and profitability. Or have we?
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June
Slower growth is appropriate at this point in the cyclical recovery.
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MayUncertainty in the Marketplace: Oil and Inflation
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AprilFrom Recovery to Expansion
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March In the Middle of a "W" Recovery
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JanuaryThings to Watch For: Presidential Election, China/Japan/Asia, and Commodity Prices
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